Some decisions seem to demand an impossible standard.
Not simply that they work out well.
That they prove themselves in advance.
We want reassurance before we commit.
Evidence before we move.
A glimpse of the future before we agree to live it.
The expectation is rarely spoken out loud.
Most of the time it sits quietly underneath the decision itself.
A belief that, if we think carefully enough, research thoroughly enough or wait patiently enough, the right answer will eventually reveal itself.
The difficulty is that many of the decisions that shape our lives don’t work that way.
The Promise Hidden Inside Certainty
When we talk about certainty, we’re often talking about something much bigger than information.
Information is useful.
Information can help us understand a situation more clearly.
But certainty offers something information never can.
It creates the impression that the decision is no longer carrying quite so much risk.
That once we’ve found the right answer, the outcome will somehow become more predictable.
More manageable. Less dependent on judgement.
That’s an appealing idea.
Because uncertainty forces us to accept something many of us would rather avoid.
That even thoughtful decisions can lead to outcomes we didn’t expect.
And that certainty is not always the thing standing between us and a good choice.
The Evidence We Want Doesn’t Exist Yet
I think this is where many of us get stuck.
We’re looking for proof that belongs to a future we haven’t lived.
They’re understandable questions.
The problem isn’t asking them.
The problem is expecting definitive answers before the decision has been made.
Some evidence only appears afterwards.
Not because we’ve been careless.
Because the future hasn’t happened yet.
There is no report to read.
No review score to check.
No version of ourselves returning from five years in the future to confirm whether we chose correctly.
Why Decisions Start Feeling Impossible
Once we start expecting advance proof, uncertainty begins to look like a problem.
The decision itself hasn’t necessarily become more complicated.
The standard we’ve set for making it has.
We’re no longer asking: “Does this make sense?“
We’re asking: “Can I be certain?“
Those are very different questions.
One can often be answered.
The other usually cannot.
The Mistake We Quietly Make
One of the assumptions hiding underneath many difficult decisions is that a good choice should eventually prove itself.
Not immediately.
But soon enough for us to feel reassured that we got it right.
The difficulty is that life rarely provides that kind of feedback:
Those experiences don’t automatically tell us anything about the quality of the decision.
They simply tell us that life continued after it.
I sometimes wonder whether that’s where some of the pressure comes from.
We’re not simply trying to make a thoughtful decision.
We’re trying to avoid any future experience that might make us question it.
And that’s a standard most decisions were never designed to meet.
And That’s When I Started Thinking…..
….. whether we’ve become too quick to judge decisions by what happens immediately afterwards.
A difficult first few months can make us question a choice that was worth making.
A positive outcome can convince us we chose wisely even when luck played a bigger role than judgement.
Perhaps that’s part of the challenge.
Most important decisions don’t arrive with a clear verdict attached: They unfold, revealing different things at different times.
And often they continue teaching us long after the decision itself has been made.
The longer I think about it, the less convinced I am that most decisions can be understood from a single moment in time.
Perhaps the real challenge isn’t making the perfect choice.
Perhaps it’s accepting that some decisions only make sense once we’ve spent enough time living with them.
Your Next Step
The bigger risk may not be choosing wrong.
It may be believing that a good decision should come with guarantees.
If there’s a decision you’ve been carrying for a while, try asking yourself:
Am I looking for information?
Or am I looking for proof?
The answer may tell you more than you expect.
From Thinking to Doing helps you move forward without waiting for certainty that no decision can realistically provide.
What’s Coming Next?
Later this week we’ll explore a question that sits underneath many difficult choices.
What if you choose wrong?
And whether that fear deserves quite as much authority as we often give it.
If You Take One Thing From This
Many decisions cannot prove themselves before they are made.
That doesn’t make them bad decisions.
It makes them real ones.
People Also Ask
Is there such a thing as a perfect decision?
Many important decisions involve uncertainty. While some choices may appear better in hindsight, most cannot be fully proven before they are made.
Why do I struggle to make big decisions?
Often because you’re seeking certainty about an outcome that can only be understood through experience.
How much certainty do I need before making a decision?
Enough to make a thoughtful judgement, but not necessarily enough to eliminate every unknown.
What’s the difference between information and certainty?
Information helps you understand a situation. Certainty is the feeling that the outcome is guaranteed. The two are not always the same.
References
Evangelidis, I, Levav, J and Simonson, I (2023) A Re-Examination of the Impact of Decision Conflict on Choice Deferral. Management Science.
Isler, O and Yilmaz, O (2023) How to Activate Intuitive and Reflective Thinking in Behaviour Research? A Comprehensive Examination of Experimental Techniques. Behavior Research Methods.
Arnold, M, Goldschmitt, M and Rigotti, T (2023) Dealing with Information Overload: A Comprehensive Review. Frontiers in Psychology.
